Forecast on USD Minors (USDCHF, AUDUSD, USDCAD) by Precise Trader – May 01, 2010
May 3, 2010 Make Money Online
USDCHF closed @ 10775 which was BELOW the open and breached the previous day’s low. The High was 15 pips from Precise Trader’s Res Zone 1 and the Low was 5 pips from Precise Trader’s Hrly Level. The Hourly Oscillators are Bullish and the Price is Above the MA, so the Bears have to be Sidelined. Hourly Trend is Up while 10735 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways Up while 10615 holds, so expect the Price to make Higher Highs and the Bears have to Sidelined. The Daily Trend breached Below the Prior Day’s Low but the Bears gave up mildly towards the Close. The Hourly Trend has been creeping higher and expect the Bulls to test the 10885-10925 levels before any significant move down, 10745-35 are the Critical levels to watch to maintain the Bullish Outlook . On the 5 min is along the Horizontal Channel and the Patterns are suggesting Higher Highs are expected provided 10805-10735 levels holds . The Opening Price Principles are suggesting that CHF is Weak against most Crosses so Long on dips Strategy should be applied.
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Tags: AUD, CAD, CHF, Foreign Exchange, Forex, Precise Trader, Trading, USD
Technical Analysis CHF By: Investija – Nov 6, 2009
Nov 7, 2009 Make Money Online
This pair is trapped between resistance and support levels for a long time, while candles remain in this neutral area, further jumping is expected. According to the previous movements, bears are in better shape and today we should see a breakout of support level.
Tags: CHF, Forex, Technical Analysis
USDCHF Technical Analysis By: Investija – Oct 2, 2009
Oct 3, 2009 Make Money Online
USDCHF bears are trying to breach out by support level, which is very important level for bulls. If this barrier is broken, bears has more chances to begin a negative trend downside. Selling options are better to take under support level.
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Tags: CHF, Forex, Technical Analysis, USD
Technical analysis CHF – Oct 01, 2009
Oct 1, 2009 Make Money Online
USDCHF still remains above resistance level, however bulls are not feeling very well. After yesterday’s sharp movement bulls and bears are moving in very low range. Bulls opportunities stands better at the moment rather then bears.
Tags: CHF, Forex, Technical Analysis, USD
Technical analysis CHF – Sep 19, 2009
Sep 19, 2009 Make Money Online
The pre-planned short positions from key resistance range levels were implemented with overlap of minimal estimated target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked low activity of both parties does not clarify the choice of planning priorities for today. Therefore, considering the suppositions of probable rate range movement we can assume probability of rate return to close 1,0320/40 levels where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of shorter time interval. As for short-term sales on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 1,0260/80 and (or) further break-out variant up to 1,0200/20, 1,0140/60, 1,0040/60. The alternative for buyers will be above 1,0360 with the targets of 1,0400/20, 1,0460/80, 1,0520/40.
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Tags: CHF, Forex, OsMA trend indicator, Technical Analysis
Forex News – Shanghai Rallies While Markets Wait on the ECB
Sep 3, 2009 Make Money Online
Forex News and Events:
Markets were generally quiet in Asia, as they await the ECB rate decision and then the payroll figures tomorrow. Asia was mixed, but the scrutinized Shanghai index rallied back 4.79% after a tought few days. A nice boost for equity bulls and a potential indicator that risk appetite will be healthy today. However, USDJPY remains weak, briefly penetrating the 92.00 support, before rumors of option barriers scared traders off. European indexes were able to hold on to China’s positive moment and are broadly higher. Gold prices continued to drive higher after yesterday’s massive $20 plus surge (breaching a 6 month high of $980oz). The metals move will have traders eyeing EURCHF, now approaching to 1.5100 and hiding SNB. From yesterday US session, markets are digesting the August FOMC minutes and subsequent Philadelphia Fed President Plosser comments and ADP report. The Fed minutes overall failed to surprise, but did sound slightly more optimistic than July’s meeting. In an interview with CNBC, Plosser stated that the Fed must carefully examine exit strategies from unprecedented quantitative easing program, including raising interest rates. ADP estimate of the change in private payrolls was -298k, slightly worse than expected. As always, we caution traders on making too much of this figure, since ADP has a sporadic correlation to actual BLS numbers. Australia showed the worst reading since mid 2008, as July trade deficit widened by more than expected to AUD1.56bn, but exports were resilient and import showed a healthy growth in domestic demand. Despite the slightly negative reading, the AUD gained on its correlation to rising China stocks (improving risk appetite).
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Tags: CHF, ECB, EUR, Foreign Exchange, Forex, Gold, Gold Price, JPY, Market, Silver, USD
Forex News – Weak Japanese Economic Data Supports DPJ Victory this Weekend
Aug 28, 2009 Make Money Online
Forex News and Events:
Whole lot of nothing going on. Yesterday’s sell off in USD was rumored to have been driven by stops being triggered and in these thin markets seem to make the most sense. The S&P500 closed basically flat, trapped in week range. And without equities giving markets direction, currencies are forces to stay range bound. Risky assets gained slightly despite Shanghai trading lower (down -2.8%).. European equity markets are currently higher and US index futures are pointing to a slightly higher open. Overall, we expect risk correlated trades to gain against the USD and JPY, since the recent trend is for risk aversion trading to fade in light of no news negative information. The JPY has been broadly stronger this week, as worries over the US fiscal and monetary polices came back into focus, sending participants back into the risk aversion trade. However, last night economic data prompted modest weakness in the JPY and highlighted real potential troubles in the underlying economy. While Japan is anxiously waiting this weekend for the lower house election (and potential Democratic opposition landslide win), the Japanese economic data didn’t look encouraging. The national core CPI jumped to -2.2% y/y in July (vs. June -1.7%). However, the big story was in consumption and labor markets data. Real spending posted a fall of -2.0% y/y in July, well short of the market expectation of -0.3%, while unemployment spiked to an all-time high of 5.7%, exceeded the market expectation for July for 5.5%. The lethal combination of soft labor markets, trepid consumption and deflation, is a puzzle, which Japanese officials have never been able to figure out. The two x-factors to JPY pricing are this week’s elections and upcoming expected corporate repatriation. While much of the LDP upset (DPJ victory, which were helped by today’s figures) has already been priced in, you can never be fully prepared for a change of power of this scale and perhaps eventual effect on Japan’s massive debt to GDP ratio. In regard to repatriation, recent changes in tax exemptions on dividends could prompt corporations to take advantage of the changes in legislation. Outside the risk aversion trade, both factors could push the JPY in either direction. Overall, we believe the JPY to be overpriced and expect continued appreciation in the USDJPY to 95 in 3-months. Today in the UK, the Q2 GDP
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Tags: CHF, CPI, Foreign Exchange, Forex, GBP, JPY, overprice, USD
Forex news – Waiting for Corporate Earnings and US Retail Sales
Jul 15, 2009 Make Money Online
Forex News and Events:
Risk-correlated FX currencies saw a rebound and continue to perform alongside risky assets. Positive risk sentiment took full flight on Wall Street, with the financial sector leading the charge (a Wall Street analyst’s report was credited with sparking the rally) with the S&P closing up 2.49%. Regional Asian equity indexes followed, with the Hang Seng up 3.65% and currently Europe is green across the board. Crude wti fell to a low of $58.30bbl before rallying above $60bbl, while gold drove above $921oz (oil and gold correlations with the USD have grown over the past months). Overall, FX trading pattern have been choppy and lacking broad based confirmation across pairs. In addition, with relatively low volume and tight ranges in most of the majors the markets smells of the summer doldrums. The sterling has been benefiting from a shift in risk appetite and slightly better economic data trading up to 1.6318 against the USD. UK RICS house prices survey data surprised to the upside, improving to -18.1% from -44.1% (strongest reading since sept 2007). Also while critic of the BoE QE program is commonplace BoE’s Charlie Bean jumped into the fray stating that it would take up 9 months before the real effects are fully in, but the UK is already moving in the right direction. In New Zealand, RBNZ’s Bollard stated this morning, that the country economy requires a weaker exchange rate. “What is needed is for the New Zealand dollar to be persistently weak over the coming years, to encourage the needed business investment to be export-oriented and supportive of improvement in New Zealand ‘s external liability position”.
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Tags: CHF, Currency, Economics, Forex, FX, GBP, Oil, USD, Wall Street
Forex News – Comments From China Provide Some Buzz on this Quiet Summer Friday
Jul 13, 2009 Make Money Online
Forex News and Events:
On this slow summer Friday participants are making the most out of any news. Such is the case with Chinese representative State Counselor Dai Bingguo comments regarding reserve currency system. On the final day of the G8 meeting, he stated “we should have a better system for reserve currency issuance and regulation so that we can maintain relative stability of major reserve currencies” interestingly enough leaving out specific mention of the USD. With China’s President Hu Jintao’s sudden departure from the G8 meeting and President Obama’s Moscow trip which skirted the issue it seemed that the debate on the USD role as the world’s reserve currency would be avoided. Dai’s comments sparked the media imagination although the comments were generic and the markets reaction was muted. Asian equity markets closed lower and European markets are red across the board. Commodity and commodity currencies are trending lower with crude prices slipping below $60bll (first time since may) and AUDUSD trading down to 0.7765. As stated yesterday we are carefully monitoring both the EURCHF and USDJPY since both are at levels that will make there respective officials very uncomfortable. In a newspaper article, SNB Chairman Roth re-affirmed the SNB’s commitment to halting CHF appreciation by intervening directly in the FX markets. EURCHF, which had traded towards 1.51, spiked higher to 1.5175 (illustrating how jumpy traders are) on the report and has settled at 1.5140. In an interesting turn the BoE opted not to expand its asset purchase program which could potentially run out before August meeting. Members wanted to monitor the strength of the UK economy and forecast for growth and inflation. The market responded by driving up the sterling with GBPUSD running to 1.6400. We believe the markets over reacted to the news since we expected the MPC to expand at August meeting and there is nothing stopping the MPC from increasing the size of purchases when it issues its Inflation report. What seems as a foot note the BoE held rates at 0.50%. Moving forward we are cautious regarding the sterling prospects and believe it is perhaps the most vulnerable of the G10 currencies.
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Tags: CHF, Currency, EUR, Forex, FX Market, GBP, Inflation, JPY, Market, Risk, USD
Forex News – Risky Assets take a hit on U.S. Payrolls
Jul 4, 2009 Make Money Online
Forex News and Events:
The dollar rose against major currencies yesterday after bleak U.S. jobs data renewed concerns about the economy and enhanced the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. The Euro was down 1.1 percent at $1.4002, retreating from $1.4201 hit on Wednesday, its highest level since early June. Adding to pressure on the Euro were comments from the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet that Euro-zone activity would likely remain weak for the rest of the year. The dollar slipped 0.8 percent against Yen to 95.85, after trading as high as 96.89 yen before the jobs report. The Swiss franc hit the day’s low of 1.5257 per euro from around 1.52 after a Swiss National Bank official said the central bank was prepared to continue interventions to stem the domestic currency’s strength. Volume was light ahead of the three-day weekend for the Independence Day holiday in the United States. Overnight the dollar held gains made in the wake of bleaker than expected U.S. jobs numbers, hovering near its highest levels in a week against the Euro on Friday and pressuring commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar. U.S. Treasury bonds rose while stocks fell more than 2 percent after a government report showed U.S. employers cut 467,000 jobs in June, far more than expected, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent. The Euro also extended losses against the yen, dropping 0.4 percent to 133.82 yen, after falling nearly 2 percent on Thursday The dollar edged down against the yen to 95.82 yen although it remained well within a range of 93.50-100 which has limited it since mid-April. The Australian dollar was also trading around its lowest levels in a week, at $0.7925, now a long way off an eight-month high of $0.8265 set in early June. It fell more than 2 percent against the yen on Thursday and dipped to 75.78 Yen on Friday, also its lowest level in a week. We’re also testing important support levels on stocks with S&P trend line support coming in at 888 (which is also the 200 DMA). A break would lead lower for 859. Same configuration for the DAX, where trend line support comes in at 4669, below 4579 is the next level. Financial markets will be closed on Friday and will reopen on Monday.
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Tags: CHF, Currency, EUR, Euro, European Central Bank, Financial Market, Forex, GBP, JPY, Retail Sale, Risk today, Risky Assets, USD
